Spring has been much like Winter here, except that it’s a bit warmer and flowers are starting to poke out. The moisture trends that we had all Winter are continuing. We have about as many rainy days as we do sunny days right now. Hayden is experiencing 100-year flood water and once a week there is snow in the air. This is not our normal Spring. At least the Yampa River is very healthy and should be for Summer.
Over the past month, I’ve found the buyers that I am working with are getting ants in the pants. Having spent at least Winter looking for a place that works for them, we are working to find other options that might work.
I am not the only broker in this position. Almost everyone is in the same situation. Few listings and those that do come on the market don’t fit. From talking to persons visiting from around the country, Steamboat mirrors their markets.
Right now is Mud Season, the wet time between Winter and Summer. This is the time when listings should be flowing onto the market, and that is not happening. I am hopeful that there is a delay being caused by weird weather. Or perhaps folks are waiting to see if there really is a Recession and what that will look like. In any case, listings will come on the market because people have to move or split estates up due to death, divorce, and more.
Is interest rate increases slowing down the housing market?
I have not seen this except for those who are buying under $550,000. What I’ve seen more of is the number of deliveries being made by UPS is half what it was six months ago. Persons going out for a beer stop at two rather than three. Car sales have slowed. Building projects are postponed or canceled. And folks are doing more themselves rather than hiring out labor.
In my studies, the only constant I’ve seen is pundit economists still predict an upcoming economic hard time. Headlines range from ‘first soft landing ever’ to ’1920’s level depression’. Even Janet Yellen said you can’t have a recession if everyone has a job. Jeremy Grantham is sticking to his predictions of at least a 5% drop in housing prices and large changes in the S&P 500.
Gauging trends right now is difficult with most of the news headlines. These headlines consistently make me ask who funded the research and if is it just manipulated data to get readers’ eyes on their webpage. So, if I can, I stick to reading about people who have little to gain from poor reporting, like economists and over-successful fund managers who have more money than Europe.
For Steamboat Springs, I expect very little to change in the next few months and into Fall. Real estate will hold value and transactions will be steady with properties being on the market longer. If a recession does occur, Steamboat should remain economically stable. Yes, there will be less tourism but Steamboat is still a place people want to be.
Pressure on prices for both purchase/sale and renting will being to occur in a year or so when hundreds of new apartments and homes will be coming on the market.